Xinhua News Agency: How to Understand China's Goal of Reaching the GDP Per Capita Level of a Moderately Developed Country by 2035

    Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, November 22 — The “Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development” states: “By 2035, China's economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, national defense capabilities, comprehensive national power, and international influence will have significantly increased. Per capita GDP will reach the level of moderately developed countries, people's lives will be happier and more fulfilling, and socialist modernization will be basically realized.” Among these, “reaching the per capita GDP level of moderately developed countries” stands as a crucial benchmark, vital to the fundamental realization of socialist modernization. This can be understood more deeply from the following three aspects.

    First, “reaching the per capita GDP level of moderately developed countries” is a key indicator of fundamentally achieving socialist modernization. The concept of “moderately developed country level” was first proposed by Comrade Deng Xiaoping in the 1980s when outlining China's long-term goal of fundamentally realizing socialist modernization. The 13th CPC National Congress in 1987 formally proposed the “Three-Step Strategy” for economic development, defining the third-step strategic goal as “by the middle of the next century, achieving a per capita GNP on par with that of moderately developed countries, ensuring a relatively prosperous life for the people, and basically realizing modernization.” Since the 18th CPC National Congress, socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era, and the Party has continuously enriched and developed the “Two Centenary Goals.” The 19th CPC National Congress made a strategic arrangement to advance the realization of the second centenary goal in two phases, explicitly proposing to basically achieve socialist modernization by 2035. This strategic arrangement advances the timeline for basically achieving modernization by 15 years compared to the original “Three-Step” strategy. When outlining the long-range goal for 2035, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee clearly identified “per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries” as a key indicator of basically achieving socialist modernization. The 20th CPC National Congress further clarified China's overall development goals for 2035 around the fundamental realization of socialist modernization, outlining eight key aspects. The first aspect states: “Economic strength, scientific and technological capabilities, and comprehensive national power will be significantly enhanced, with per capita GDP reaching a new level and achieving the standard of a moderately developed country.”

    Second, it is essential to accurately grasp and reasonably define the “standard of a moderately developed country.” Currently, there is no universally accepted definition of a moderately developed country internationally. However, major international organizations publish lists of developed countries (regions) in their annual reports. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) list is widely used, primarily based on indicators such as per capita GDP and the Human Development Index (HDI, which comprehensively measures per capita GNI, life expectancy, and years of schooling). In 2020, the IMF recognized 39 developed countries (regions), with per capita GDP generally exceeding $20,000. Greece had the lowest per capita GDP at $17,600. By 2024, the IMF recognized 41 developed countries (regions), with some newly added countries exceeding $25,000 in per capita GDP. Latvia had the lowest per capita GDP at $23,400. Based on the 2024 developed country threshold of $23,400 and applying an annual adjustment of approximately 2% nominal growth (the threshold increased by about 2% annually from 2000 to 2020 and by about 7.5% annually from 2020 to 2024), the threshold for developed countries is projected to reach approximately $29,000 by 2035. Considering uncertainties such as adjustments to the developed-country threshold, domestic price levels, and exchange rate fluctuations, setting China's socioeconomic development goals scientifically requires adhering to China's actual conditions and accurately defining the target requirements for per capita GDP to reach the level of a moderately developed country. It is widely recognized that the benchmark for achieving the level of a moderately developed country should be based on the criteria proposed in 2020. This entails surpassing the developed-country threshold (over $20,000 per capita) and doubling per capita GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 (at constant 2020 prices).

    Third, China possesses the conditions and capabilities to achieve the goal of “reaching the level of a moderately developed country in terms of per capita GDP.” Working backward from the long-term goal of achieving a per capita GDP of over $20,000 by 2035—doubling the 2020 level (at constant 2020 prices)—and considering that the total population is projected to decline by approximately 0.20% annually by 2035, GDP must grow at an average annual rate of 4.17% during the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plan periods. Taking into account factors such as factor supply, technological progress, and institutional innovation, China's potential GDP growth rate over the next decade is fully capable of supporting an average annual growth rate of 4.17%. As long as we remain committed to promoting high-quality development as our central theme, uphold reform and innovation as our fundamental driving force, accelerate the removal of institutional and systemic barriers hindering high-quality development, continuously enhance development momentum and social vitality, fully unleash economic growth potential, and foster sustained and healthy economic development, we will be fully capable of achieving the goal of reaching the GDP per capita level of a moderately developed country by 2035.