CSC Financial Chief Economist Huang Wentao: RMB Asset Revaluation and Investing in China Are Certainties

Shanghai Securities News (Reporter Yan Liumeng) - Huang Wentao, Chief Economist of China Securities Co., Ltd. (CSC Financial), said on September 24 that the current global macro landscape presents "five uncertainties and five certainties," shaped mainly by the AI technology revolution, the transformation of the international monetary system and geopolitical conflicts, with the change in productivity and the adjustment of production relations at its core as they converge on the global stage.

The five uncertainties, according to Huang, are: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path; whether high debt levels in developed economies can be sustained; the yen's exchange rate and the global carry trade mechanism; geopolitical shocks to and supply security of crude oil; and the long-term global macro impact of the AI era.

The five certainties are: inflation stickiness in developed economies; the rise in bond yields driven by debt pressure and inflation in developed economies; China's strong import-export growth and manufacturing upgrading; China's policy resolve, high-quality development and technological progress; and RMB appreciation, the revaluation of RMB assets and investing in China.