Everbright Securities: Bill Financing Surges Again in May; June Liquidity Moderately Tight

Report Summary

On June 12, 2026, the PBOC released May financial statistics:

(1) M2 grew 8.6% YoY, flat from April;

(2) M1 grew 5.5% YoY, up 0.5 percentage points from April;

(3) New RMB loans at 520 billion yuan, down 100 billion yuan YoY, with monthly growth rate at 5.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from April;

(4) New social financing at 2 trillion yuan, down 260.7 billion yuan YoY, with monthly growth rate at 7.7%, down 0.1 percentage points from April.

I. New Loans at 520 Billion Yuan in May, Down 100 Billion Yuan YoY

New RMB loans in May were 520 billion yuan, down 100 billion yuan YoY, with the growth rate declining 0.1pct to 5.5%. After adjusting for government bond replacement, the monthly growth rate was around 6%, down 0.1pct. Month-on-month, lending increased significantly from April, with intra-month pacing maintaining a "low-then-high" pattern. Cumulatively, new loans in Jan-May totaled 9.11 trillion yuan, down 1.6 trillion yuan YoY, reflecting a continued trend of "slower volume and declining growth."

II. Corporate Medium-Long-Term Loans Remain Negative; Short-Term Loans and Bill Discounting Surge Again

Corporate loans added 640 billion yuan in May, up 110 billion yuan YoY, continuing to serve as the "ballast" of lending. Short-term loans and medium-long-term loans added 100 billion and -20 billion yuan respectively, down 10 billion and 350 billion yuan YoY. Bill financing added 557 billion yuan, up 482.4 billion yuan YoY, providing strong support for the month's credit readings.

III. Retail Lending Pressure Persists; Mortgage and Consumer Loan Supply Remains Constrained

Household loans decreased by 141.2 billion yuan in May, down 195.2 billion yuan YoY. Short-term and medium-long-term household loans decreased by 84 billion and 57.1 billion yuan respectively. Cumulatively, household loans in Jan-May decreased by 631.4 billion yuan, down 1.2 trillion yuan YoY.

IV. New Social Financing at 2 Trillion Yuan in May; Growth Rate Edges Down to 7.7%

New social financing in May was 2 trillion yuan, down 260.7 billion yuan YoY, with the balance growth rate at 7.7%, down 0.1pct from April. Social financing demonstrated strong resilience, with the social financing-loan growth spread maintained at a relatively high 2.2pct.

V. M1 Unexpectedly Rises to 5.5%; M2 Growth Relatively Stable

M2 growth was 8.6% at end-May, flat from April. M1 growth rose to 5.5%, up 0.5pct from April. The M2-M1 growth spread narrowed to 3.1pct, indicating marginal improvement in money velocity.

VI. June Monetary Policy Moderately Tight; Liquidity Neutral; Rates Return to Policy Center

Early June liquidity showed marginal tightening, with short-end rates rising back toward policy levels. This was driven by: (1) PBOC's concentrated liquidity withdrawal at month start, pulling rates toward policy center; (2) significant decline in state-owned bank lending, disrupting interbank liquidity transmission. Going forward, liquidity is likely to remain neutral, with no pulse events expected during the quarter-end transition.