National Bureau of Statistics: October Manufacturing PMI at 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month

    I. China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Performance

    In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity.

    By enterprise size, the PMIs for large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, down 1.1, 0.1, and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, all falling below the threshold.

    Among the five component indices of the manufacturing PMI, the Supplier Delivery Time Index hovered at the threshold, while the Production Index, New Orders Index, Raw Materials Inventory Index, and Employment Index all fell below the threshold.

    The Production Index stood at 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing output.

    The New Orders Index stood at 48.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand.

    The Raw Materials Inventory Index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued decrease in the inventory levels of key raw materials in the manufacturing sector.

    The Employment Index stood at 48.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in labor demand among manufacturing enterprises.

    The Supplier Delivery Time Index reached 50.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and hovering at the threshold, suggesting that delivery times from raw material suppliers remained largely unchanged from the previous month.

    II. China Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Performance

    In October, the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising into the expansionary range.

    By sector:

- The Construction Business Activity Index was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; The Business Activity Index for the service sector was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. Among service industries, the Business Activity Index for rail transport, air transport, postal services, accommodation, and cultural, sports, and entertainment sectors all remained in the high-prosperity range of 60.0% or above; while the indices for insurance and real estate sectors both fell below the threshold.

    The new orders index stood at 46.0%, unchanged from the previous month and still below the threshold, indicating weak market demand in the non-manufacturing sector. By industry, the new orders index for construction was 45.9%, up 3.7 percentage points from the previous month; the new orders index for services was 46.0%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.

    The Input Prices Index stood at 49.4%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month but below the threshold, indicating a narrowing decline in the overall level of input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises' operational activities. By sector, the Input Prices Index for construction was 49.6%, up 2.4 percentage points from the previous month; the Input Prices Index for services was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

    The selling price index stood at 47.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month but still below the threshold, indicating that overall non-manufacturing selling prices were lower than the previous month. By industry, the selling price index for construction was 48.4%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the selling price index for services was 47.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month.

    The employment index stood at 45.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in employment conditions for non-manufacturing enterprises. By sector, the employment index for construction was 39.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the employment index for services was 46.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

    The Business Activity Expectations Index stood at 56.1%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that most non-manufacturing enterprises are relatively optimistic about market development prospects. By sector, the Business Activity Expectations Index for construction was 56.0%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous month; the index for services was 56.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

    III. China Composite PMI Output Index Performance

    In October, the Composite PMI Output Index stood at 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, remaining at the threshold level. This indicates that overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises remained stable.

    Notes

    1. Explanation of Key Indicators

    The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is compiled through the statistical aggregation of monthly survey results from enterprise purchasing managers. It encompasses all aspects of enterprise procurement, production, and distribution across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. As one of the internationally recognized leading indicators for monitoring macroeconomic trends, it possesses strong predictive and early-warning capabilities. The Composite PMI Output Index is a comprehensive indicator within the PMI framework that reflects changes in overall industry output (manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors). A PMI reading above 50% indicates overall economic expansion compared to the previous month, while a reading below 50% indicates overall economic contraction.

    2. Survey Scope

    The survey covers 31 major manufacturing sectors and 3,200 sample enterprises from the National Economic Industry Classification (GB/T 4754-2017), as well as 43 major non-manufacturing sectors and 4,300 sample enterprises.

    3. Survey Methodology

    The Purchasing Managers' Survey employs PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling. Manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry categories serve as strata, with sample sizes allocated according to each industry's share of total manufacturing or non-manufacturing value added. Within strata, samples are drawn using probability proportional to the enterprise's main business revenue.

    This survey is organized and implemented by survey teams directly under the National Bureau of Statistics, utilizing the National Statistical Online Direct Reporting System to conduct monthly questionnaire surveys of enterprise purchasing managers.

    4. Calculation Methods

    (1) Calculation Method for Category Indices. The manufacturing PMI indicator system comprises 13 category indices: Production, New Orders, New Export Orders, Backlog of Orders, Finished Goods Inventories, Purchases, Imports, Prices Paid for Raw Materials, Selling Prices, Raw Materials Inventories, Employment, Supplier Delivery Times, and Business Activity Expectations. The non-manufacturing PMI indicator system comprises 10 category indices: business activity, new orders, new export orders, outstanding orders, inventories, input prices, selling prices, employment, supplier delivery times, and business activity expectations. Category indices are calculated using the diffusion index method, where the percentage of enterprises reporting an increase is added to half the percentage reporting no change. Since the non-manufacturing sector lacks a composite index, the Business Activity Index is commonly used internationally to reflect overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

    (2) Calculation Method for the Manufacturing PMI Index. The Manufacturing PMI is calculated by weighting five diffusion indices (sub-indices). The five sub-indices and their respective weights are determined based on their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, these include: New Orders Index (30% weight), Production Index (25% weight), Employment Index (20% weight), Supplier Delivery Time Index (15% weight), and Raw Materials Inventory Index (10% weight). The Supplier Delivery Time Index is an inverse indicator and undergoes reverse calculation when synthesizing the Manufacturing PMI.

    (3) Calculation Method for the Composite PMI Output Index. The Composite PMI Output Index is calculated as a weighted sum of the Manufacturing Production Index and the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index, with weights representing the respective shares of manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in GDP.

    5. Seasonal Adjustment

    The Purchasing Managers' Survey is a monthly survey. Due to seasonal factors, the data exhibits significant fluctuations. All indices released are seasonally adjusted data.