Global Financial Brief | Saturday, July 4, 2026

Core Themes: At a recent UN Security Council emergency session, U.S. and Iranian representatives engaged in heated exchanges over Strait of Hormuz passage, regional attacks, and agreement implementation, each accusing the other of undermining diplomatic efforts and escalating tensions. Some EU countries now view the payment of Strait of Hormuz transit fees to Iran and Oman as inevitable. Iran has stated it will accelerate the clearance of residual mines and obstacles in the Strait of Hormuz to achieve full navigation as soon as possible, though progress has fallen short of expectations. Israel has repeatedly stressed that it will not withdraw from southern Lebanon, drawing dissatisfaction from numerous Middle Eastern and European nations.

Against this backdrop, international oil prices saw a moderate rebound. WTI crude rose back to the USD 68/bbl range, Brent crude held at USD 72/bbl, and UAE Murban crude posted a larger gain at USD 66/bbl. International gold experienced a phase of oversold recovery, with the key inflection point coming from U.S. June non-farm payrolls data significantly missing expectations. Markets rapidly scaled back Fed rate hike bets, and both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields weakened in tandem, opening a valuation repair window for non-yielding gold. As of early trading hours on July 4, London gold had rebounded by over USD 150 cumulatively over two sessions, briefly testing the USD 4,200/oz round-number level, with short-term bullish sentiment clearly recovering.

On July 3, A-shares opened broadly higher and staged a stabilizing rebound, buoyed by liquidity tailwinds from the sharply weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data overnight. The Shanghai Composite Index held the 4,000-point support level, with intraday volatility narrowing markedly and Thursday's panic selling substantially easing. However, structural divergence remained extreme, with main board, cyclical, safe-haven themes, and humanoid robot stocks posting collective strength. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,043.64, up 0.37%, with turnover of RMB 1.47 trillion, effectively cementing the 4,000-point support floor. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 15,597.51, up 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index closed at 4,019.93, up a marginal 0.07%. U.S. markets were closed for the Independence Day holiday.

I. Global Stock Market Performance

U.S. Markets (Closed)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,900.07, +1.14%
• S&P 500 Index: 7,483.24, +0.00%
• Nasdaq Composite Index: 25,832.67, -0.80%

European Markets (Close of July 3)

• Germany DAX 30: 25,779.31, +0.78%
• France CAC 40: 8,508.07, +0.39%
• UK FTSE 100: 10,679.03, +0.25%
• Euro Stoxx 50: 6,412.68, +0.82%

Asia-Pacific Markets (Close of July 3)

• Shanghai Composite Index: 4,043.64, +0.37%
• Shenzhen Component Index: 15,597.51, +0.64%
• ChiNext Index: 4,019.93, +0.07%

Hong Kong Markets

• Hang Seng Index: 23,350.03, +1.28%
• HSCEI: 7,699.76, +1.15%
• Hang Seng TECH Index: 4,499.00, +1.00%

Japan & Korea

• Nikkei 225: 69,744.07, +1.47%
• KOSPI: 8,088.34, +5.76%

II. Commodities

Precious Metals

• Spot Gold: USD 4,175.38/oz, +1.25%
• COMEX Gold Futures: USD 4,187.30/oz, +1.49%
• Shanghai Gold Exchange (Au9999): RMB 910.60/g, -0.04%
• Gold T+D: RMB 910.70/g, +0.41%
• SHFE Gold (most active): RMB 912.80/g, +0.81%

Energy

• WTI Crude: USD 68.78/bbl, +0.13%
• Brent Crude: USD 72.12/bbl, +0.45%
• UAE Murban Crude: USD 66.48/bbl, +1.93%
• INE Crude (most active): RMB 438.30/bbl, -0.16%

Industrial Metals

• LME Copper: USD 13,357.50/t, +0.54%
• LME Aluminum: USD 3,090.00/t, +0.23%
• SHFE Copper (most active): RMB 102,970/t, +0.14%
• Yangtze Spot #1 Copper: RMB 103,160/t

III. Currency & Money Market Indicators

Exchange Rates

• CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index (updated June 30): 102.59, +0.02%
• RMB Exchange Rate (July 3): Central parity rate 6.8047, up 41 bps; onshore RMB (CNY) 6.7804, up 62 bps; offshore RMB (CNH) 6.7853, up 35 bps
• BIS RMB Effective Exchange Rate Index (updated June 30): 110.26, -0.03%
• U.S. Dollar Index (July 3): 100.86, -0.11%

Money Market Rates (Shibor & DR007)

• Shibor Overnight: 1.3690%, -3.70 bps
• Shibor 7-Day: 1.3960%, -1.50 bps